NHL attendance continues to be strong in spite of big drops in Carolina and Florida. 2014-15 is on track to be the highest gate attendance ever (2012-13 was a lockout shortened season). Outdoor games were excluded from figures below.
No really changes from last month as the NHL continues strong attendance numbers in spite of steep drop-offs in Florida and Carolina. This is the first month we have seen 2012-2013 numbers. As you might recall, the season did not start until mid-January. The spike was related to pent up demand and opening night sellouts inflating the January average. The NHL’s attendance numbers are extraordinary when you realize that roughly have the league sells out every game.
By team, no real change over last month. Dallas overtook Columbus as the top gainer over last year.
Carolina’s drop was expected based on cutting promotions before the Season started.
It is also hard to blame fans in Carolina right now as the Hurricanes have the longest playoff drought of US teams. I know everyone thinks that teams should support their teams in winning and losing seasons but outside Canada, that doesn’t happen too often.
In spite of steep drop-offs in Carolina and Florida, the NHL Reported Attendance through December is up slightly. Columbus and Dallas are leading the growth with double digit growth in the same period last year.
The Blue Jackets growth over last year is probably most attributable to their exciting playoff series last year where they won their first ever playoff game against the Pittsburgh. If you remember, they started the season very poorly and it wasn’t until the last 15 games that they’ve been playing great hockey. I expect this growth to cool off a bit due to their strong attendance the second half of last season.
As reported before the season, the new ownership group of the Panthers are turning the business around by reducing the amount of promotions and giveaways. December attendance was aided by favorable match-ups with Pittsburgh, Montreal and the Rangers but they are improving the product on the ice as well. If the winning sustains, expect them to get to 2013-14 levels and they will be doing it without the heavy promotions.
After all the great feedback I received on the Road Attendance analysis last February, I got inspired. I dug into years and years of game by game data to understand trends and impacts to attendance. Some of that research you can see via the analysis I did on the Phoenix Coyotes mid-season. I really wanted
to decipher what moves the day to day attendance. At the core, my findings show that there are 3 main influences: 1) Opponent 2) Time of Year and 3) Day of the week. Although people love to say “winning” as an indicator, my research doesn’t call that out specifically. It is more of a long term effect on attendance and not as variable year to year. i.e. Dallas missing the playoffs for years has an impact on attendance but it is a steady decline vs a cliff from playoff year to non-playoff year. Also when you look at certain franchises like Edmonton, Toronto and Calgary. Losing has not impact on their regular season attendance.
With all that research in my back pocket and a handful of time on my hand since game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals otherwise known as baseball season, I decided to systematically predict the attendance of every NHL game this season. For comparison purposes, I’ve excluded Winter Classics, Heritage Classic, Premier games (Europe) and the new Stadium Series.
Using my systematic approach, I am projecting a league dip in attendance and not just from 2013 but 2011-12 Season as well.
I have only used math to attack this challenge. I have not taken into account any Olympic impact, ownership resolution (Phoenix, New Jersey, Florida & Dallas) or playoff bump (New York Islanders & Minnesota). I will do a deeper dive on predicting the impact to some of those teams.
I received a lot of feedback and questions on my last post on NHL attendance year over year. Several of the questions were around the Phoenix Coyotes attendance and comparing those to like months since there is conventional wisdom that Phoenix does well later in the year due to snowbirds coming down for the Winter. I went ahead and looked at the average attendance for the Coyotes by month.
As you might be able to see, there is a snowbird effect as Phoenix sees a 30% increase in Attendance for February games over October games. I also looked at how this compares with basic league increase for teams that have Attendance Volatility (teams that don’t sell out every game). For these teams they only see a 6 to 7% increase from October to February. So that starts to explain why the Coyotes attendance is so much higher this year through the end of February games when looking at the first 13 games (in October for 2011-12 season vs. the 2013 season).
Inspired by Day one of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, I have updated my Year over Year NHL attendance figures. I am going to make this short and sweet
- League attendance is up 3.4%
- 4 teams saw a decline in attendance but two of them (Leafs & Rangers) are due to configuration changes in their arenas over the off season
- 4 teams saw growth over 20% (Hurricanes, Devils, Coyotes and Dallas)
- Dallas is seeing a 70% increase
- Nashville Predators have sold out every game this season.
- That makes 18 of the 30 teams that have sold out every game
For the heck of it I thought I would break out the Coyotes attendance since there appears to be a lot of sensativity about them right now:
As always, let me know your thoughts and if you want to see any specifics.
With the modified schedule and in conference only games of this shortened season I began to wonder what were the impacts to limiting the set of opponents for a given team. So I took a deep dive into the Attendance figures over the last 2 years to understand a little more of the business side of schedule dynamics.
The far right column of the grid above is the volatility index. Another way to look at it is the expected capacity when the visiting team plays a team that does not sell out every game. Looking at some of the detail you can see the best teams on the road are Boston, Detroit, Pittsburg, Winnipeg & Chicago.
The bottom 5(or 6) are Carolina, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta*, Minnesota and Nashville.
The most surprising team in the Top 5 is Winnipeg as all other 4 have won the Stanley Cup within the previous 5 years. With determining a common thread (Recent Stanley Cup Champions) of 4 of the top 5 I went back to 2007-08 & 2008-09 seasons to see if the Anaheim Ducks winning the Stanley Cup in 2007 had a material impact on road attendance the following two seasons. The results were rather inconclusive. The Ducks only played 15 teams on the road that they played on the road in the 2006-2007 season. Of those 15 teams, they averaged more than they did in 2006-07 season in only 5 of the 15 sites another 5 saw a decrease in attendance and the remaining 5 were neutral.
Another interesting take on the data is evaluating the worst match ups for attendance. There were 5 matchups in those two years that averaged less than 50% capacity.
Anaheim @ New York Islanders
As information trickles in on the realignment plans of the NHL, this becomes an interesting reference to determine who are the real winner$ and loser$ on hosting teams that might not draw well on the road.
- I broke out Atlanta from Winnipeg to help with comparability
- According to Wikipedia, the hockey Capacity for the Tampa Bay Times Forum is 19,204 but on February 17th 2011, the reported capacity was 20,849 when the Lightening welcomed the Red Wings to town. After further investigation, the arena had some renovations in 2012 that eliminated 500+ seats.
For obvious reasons, I’ve removed counting Winter Classics, Heritage Games and Premier games in the data